With Lok Sabha elections 2014 just around the corner, we bring to a list of exit polls done over the past few months. These exit polls were commissioned by news channels and conducted by research agencies. There were overall national level exit polls and also state level exit poll. It remains to be seen how close the exit poll predictions are and that we will come to know in May when the election results are out.
ABP News-Nielsen Opinion Poll: Lok Sabha 2014
The Opinion Poll has found that NDA is set to win 236 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win mere 92 seats. According to the projection, BJP alone will get 217 (won 116 seats in 2009) seats out of a total 543 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress is projected to get only 73 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats–133 less than 2009 seat position in the Lower House. The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion’s share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.
Alliance / Party
|
2009 Actual
|
February 2014 Survey estimate
|
UPA
|
259
|
92
|
NDA
|
159
|
236
|
Left
|
125
|
29
|
Others
|
186
|
Times NOW-C Voter national poll projection
Bharatiya Janata Party will emerge as the front-runner in the upcoming general election, according to the Times NOW-C Voter national poll projection.The latest pre-poll survey predicts a big surge for BJP from the last election, taking the seat count for the National Democratic Alliance that it leads to 227, just 55 short of a simple majority. That compares with 159 Lok Sabha seats for NDA in 2009. The findings are in line with those of recent opinion polls.
Alliance / Party
|
2009 Actual
|
February 2014 Survey estimate
|
UPA
|
259
|
101
|
NDA
|
159
|
227
|
Others
|
125
|
215
|
According to CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS election tracker the saffron combine of BJP-Shiv Sena and RPI (Athavale) combine seems to have a clear lead over the ruling Congress-NCP alliance. According to survey conducted in the third week of February, the BJP-SS-RPI (A) is expected to get 42 per cent votes. The Congress-NCP alliance is likely to get 36 per cent votes.
Alliance / Party
|
2009 Actual
|
February 2014 Survey estimate
|
INC-NCP
|
39
|
36
|
BJP-SS-RPI(A)
|
35
|
42
|
AAP
|
-
|
5
|
BSP
|
5
|
4
|
MNS
|
4
|
4
|
Others
|
17
|
9
|
Both the AAP and BJP are expected to get 2-4 seats each in Delhi. The Congress is expected to get 0-2 seats. The Congress seems to have slightly recovered from the devastating loss in Assembly elections in the last three months. The Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP are likely to have a neck and neck fight in the 7 Lok Sabha seats of Delhi in the coming elections.
Alliance / Party
|
February 2014 Survey estimate
|
BJP
|
2-4
|
AAP
|
2-4
|
Congress
|
0-2
|
The latest ABP News – Nielsen opinion poll has projected a further strengthening of Bhartiya Janta Paty’s hold in Uttar Pradesh. With barely a few months in existence, AAP has manged to command 5% of the vote share in UP, with 1 seat, the poll has predicted. In the January poll, AAP was projected to win 2 seats with 6% vote share.
Alliance / Party
|
2009 Actual
|
February 2014 Survey estimate
|
Congress-RLD
|
21
|
11
|
BJP
|
10
|
40
|
SP
|
23
|
14
|
BSP
|
20
|
13
|
AAP
|
-
|
1
|
Others
|
1
|
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